In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region is expected to have consumed 493bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 647bcm is targeted for 2015. Production of an estimated 412bcm in 2010 should reach 548bcm in 2015, implying net imports rising from around 81bcm to 99bcm. This is thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. India's share of gas consumption in 2010 will have been an estimated 11.16%, while its share of production is put at 10.93%. By 2015 its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 16.24%, with the country accounting for 13.32% of supply.
Preliminary data suggest that the 2010 full year outturn will have been US$77.38 per barrel for OPEC crude, which is expected to have delivered North Sea Brent and West Texas Intermediate averages of around US$79.40/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year. The oil market is now in a bullish mood, in spite of the economic uncertainty facing the world in 2011.
Global GDP growth in 2011 should exceed 3%, but is unlikely to match the level seen in 2010. Slower economic expansion in China and Japan is set to undermine a potentially unchanged rate of growth in the US and eurozone. Oil prices seldom reflect underlying macroeconomic trends, but the case for surging energy demand and spiralling fuel costs is far from convincing. Ample oil inventories and increasing OPEC supply are likely to keep the price of crude in check - and we are sticking with our forecast of an average US$80/bbl for the OPEC basket.
Indian real GDP growth is assumed by BMI to have been 8.4% in 2010, with an annual average of 8.1% forecast in 2010-2015. State oil firm Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) is charged with maximising domestic oil production, which in 2010 will have averaged an estimated 815,000b/d. Thanks to its efforts and those of UK-based Cairn Energy, we see production peaking at around 940,000b/d by 2014. Oil consumption is forecast to increase by 4-5% per annum to 2015, implying demand of 4.01mn b/d by 2015. The import requirement would therefore be approximately 3.09mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas consumption is set to rise from an estimated 55bcm in 2010 to 105bcm, with domestic supply up from around 45bcm in 2010 to at least 73bcm by 2015.
Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting a fall in Indian oil production of 1.84%, with crude volumes peaking in 2014 at 940,000b/d, then falling steadily to reach 800,000b/d in 2020. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 42.47%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3.0% per annum towards the en chrysler d of the period and the country using 4.65mn b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated 45bcm in 2010 to a possible 85bcm by 2020. With demand growth of 177.8%, India is likely to be importing up chevrolet to 68bcm per annum of gas by the end of the period, largely in the form of LNG. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts, which provide regional and country-specific projections, can be found later in this report.< audi p>India is ranked second, behind Australia, in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) league table, leading China and Vietnam as a result of a good performance in both the upstream and downstream segments. India ranks second, ahead of Vietnam, in BMI's upstream Business Environment ratings, with a strong resource position being offset somewhat by extensive state involvement, a limited competitive landscape and only a moderate risk environment. The country sits 16 points behind Australia and two ahead of Vietnam. The country shares first place with China in BMI's downstream Business Environment ratings, reflecting its status as a high-growth energy market with strongly positive population and demand trends, plus a low level of retail site intensity. It is seven points ahead of Japan, with no threat from the more mature Asian energy economy.
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